Tony Ward's Blog
The government, Bank of England and FSA are hugely worried that unless we take these measures we are vastly exposed to a potential second banking crisis
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Tony Ward is chief executive of Homefunding
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There is a danger that this could go into an uncontrollable tailspin, threatening to drive Europe into a new vicious cycle.
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I am much more optimistic about the state of the economy going forward than I have been for a long time.
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Are interest-only loans all bad and if not then why are lenders running away from them?
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Mortgage lending is likely to be flat and unexciting
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There are of course the pessimists who see a disorderly break up as inevitable and disastrous consequences for the European economy and there are those that are more sanguine who see EU leaders resolving to repair the root of the mess.
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It’s been a busy week so far and not in a good way with the continuing global market volatility
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It’s been a busy week so far. And not in a good way with the continuing global market volatility.
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Unemployment certainly remains a worry. Recent figures from the Office of National Statistics revealed that unemployment has already risen to its highest level for 17 years. Specifically youth and long term unemployment remain a particular concern with these figures rising dramatically.
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My view is that equity release has to be a force for good if handled with care and compassion.
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Hate to say I told you so… but sadly in this case, I told you so! Things are getting increasing gloomy in the economy
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What’s happening out there I hear you cry? Well debt markets are still in a bad place.
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So the lines are drawn. In one corner sits Confederation of British Industry director general John Cridland saying that the Government would be ‘barking mad’ to push forward with plans to ring fence UK banks given current grim economic conditions.
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So we have more gloomy economic data to contend with on top of the riots and turmoil in the markets.
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Santander UK recently announced a 21% drop in gross mortgage lending for the first six months of 2011 compared to the same period of 2010 and similarly today Barclays reported a drop of 10% for the same period.
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I’m worried that my blogs are becoming a little predictable with their gloomy outlook on the economy and the world generally.
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The Federal Reserve has announced that it has cut its growth forecast for the US economy in the face of higher energy prices.
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So where do we think we are on GDP? It’s mightily confusing.
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So interest rates are back on the agenda.
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So what’s to be made of the latest unemployment figures announced by the Office of National Statistics?
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Britain seems to be more and more isolated these days in its decision to leave interest rates at a low level.
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There were a few bullish predictions made at the start of this year from various industry commentators as to when interest rates would start rising again.
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This EU directive will serve to complicate and confuse.
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How will putting rates up in the UK head off inflation which has been caused by tax rises, higher energy and commodity costs?
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Looks like the austerity measures are finally starting to kick in. It’s only now that the real effects of Government’s action to reduce the deficit are beginning to be felt. And boy, does it hurt.
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The CML has suggested the contraction in UK mortgage lending since 2007 has been the most severe on record.
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So what is the true state of affairs with Ireland? A week ago we were being assured that they had no need of European support and here we are now with a near certainty of a €90bn bail-out. So what’s changed?
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On the face of it, the Bank of England presented a pretty positive growth outlook albeit inflation remaining above target for the next year.
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Trade body announcements and other industry commentary came in thick and fast yesterday starting just after 6am with Michael Coogan’s live interview on Radio 4’s Today programme discussing the latest CML research.
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The Basel committee recently moved to clarify the new banking capital adequacy requirements and, as expected is raising regulatory ratios. It is of course debatable that such a move provides a cast iron guarantee against further crises but it is fair to say that banks that retain better quality capital are likely to be more resilient in future periods of crises.
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Everywhere you look confidence is an issue.
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Well I failed to get a blog out in July, a month which saw the FSA launch their CP 10/16 Responsible Lending paper. My excuse was that I was on holiday at the time and when I was faced with trying to download a 186 page document onto a Blackberry, in Portugal, whilst sipping a glass of Vinho Verde, I gave up.
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George Osborne’s bank levy to raise £8.3billion in four years rightly made budget headlines last week.
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The Budget promises death by a thousand cuts but if it’s light on detail next week then more will come in the spending review.
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Only last week, an ex colleague approached me for advice. A relative who runs a small Directly Authorised firm had been given thirty days by the FSA to stop trading, hire a Compliance Director, or find a home as an Appointed Representative of a network.
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It doesn't happen frequently first of all. Indeed, it’s fair to say the market's collective wisdom is far more perceptive than the views of those who individually constitute it.
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World financial markets are far from recovered. While the Germans try to administer very unpleasant medicine to Greece, other countries among the PIGS (perhaps they need a vet) risk getting the symptoms of contagion. Yields on Portuguese national debt are heading north at an alarming rate.
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And so it starts. As I write this week, political parties of all colours are launching their manifestos, blitzing the media, and indulging in the inevitable mudslinging that leaves you under no illusion that a general election has started.
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