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47% of households expect interest rate increase in next three months

Mortgage Introducer

November 1, 2021

Around 47% forecast higher interest rates in the next three months, up from 21% in September, according to the UK Household Interest Rate Expectations Index from IHS Markit.

That leaves households’ expectations of imminent Bank of England rate rise standing at an eight-year survey high.

Meanwhile, the proportion predicting that the next change will be an interest rate cut has dipped from 10% to 8% in October.

Mortgage holders are especially expectant of a rate hike, according to the latest data. The respective net balance for those owning a property with a mortgage rose from 11% in September to an all-time high of 44% in October.

This suggests that mortgage holders are already braced for higher borrowing costs.

Lewis Cooper, economist at IHS Markit, said: “Interest rate expectations are heating up, with households clearly buying into the Bank of England governor’s recent rhetoric that higher borrowing costs are imminent.

“With markets also starting to price in a rate hike at next week’s monetary policy meeting, the data show that policymakers have paved the way for rates to rise if the Monetary Policy Committee sees fit.”


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