ASTL19: UK housing market in 2019 has not been an “easy process”

Jessica Nangle

November 20, 2019

The housing market in the UK has not been an easy process thanks to the uncertain political climate according to Lucian Cook from Savills.

Cook, who was speaking at today’s Association of Short Term Lenders (ASTL) conference in London, spoke of how this year fulfilled the adage “a year is a long time in politics”.

New buyer enquiries and supply have reportedly been subdued since the referendum, with a 0.4% house price growth recorded in October.

Savills predict a 1.0% house price growth in 2020, a number which moves up to 4.5% in 2021.

Cook spoke of a “rebalancing of regions” between London and the North West, with the latter predicted to see the highest house price growth over the next five years.

Prices in Prime Central London have fallen by 20.3% in the past five years due to tax changes.

Cook argued that this part of the market is looking cheap, particularly for overseas buyers.

The average deposit in London has reached £148,512, with Cook discussing how despite this disparity between the capital and wider UK regions, the Bank of Mum of Dad is thriving at £6.2bn.

Referencing the difficulties landlords have faced in recent times, mortgaged buy-to-let transactions have declined by 54% since March 2016 according to Cook, with modest mainstream rental growth seen across the market.

Cook argued that affordability stress testing has the ability to drag on house prices, with the medium-term seeing some capacity for growth however the short-term being dependant on the current climate.

The ASTL Conference is being hosted in London on Wednesday 20 November.


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