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Halifax: Confidence in housing market declines

Jake Carter

November 30, 2020

Confidence in the housing market has fallen in November according to Halifax.

An estimated 14% of respondents noted that they believed their property had risen in value in November, down from 17% in both September and October according to the latest House Price Sentiment Tracker from Halifax.

The survey, which was conducted in partnership with IHS Markit, shows that this does remain significantly above the low of 4% recorded during the first national lockdown in May.

On an annual basis, 27% of households believe that their property will have increased in value by November next year compared to 16% in May.

In contrast, 18% think that their property’s value will be lower in 12 months’ time, down from 34% in May.

The survey asked those respondents who are renting, but do not plan to purchase a property in the next two years, to detail why they do not plan to buy.

The top reason was noted as a lack of savings at 67%, this was followed by not earning enough at 55% and a poor credit score at 26%.

The data also outlined that 8% of UK households said they planned to buy a property within the next year.

In addition, 13% expect to purchase a home within two to five years, and a further 14% plan to purchase within the next five to 10 years.

Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax, said: “UK households remain broadly confident in the strength of the property market.

“The perceived rate of house price growth weakened slightly during November but is nonetheless above average and a noticeable reversal from the period of negative sentiment we saw between April through to August.

“People also remain cautiously optimistic that property prices across the country will be higher in 12 months’ time.

“However, expectations softened from October, and remain subdued by historical standards.

“This is unlikely to change significantly while the macroeconomic landscape remains uncertain, with most housing market experts predicting greater downward pressure on house prices as we move into 2021.”

Tomer Aboody, director of property lender MT Finance, added: ‘Confidence is always key for the housing market.
“Current sentiment continues to be strong, with the perception that prices will continue rising in the near future at least. This is persuading buyers to purchase now rather than wait in the hope that prices may fall.

“Interesting times are on the horizon however, with the first quarter of next year seeing the end of furlough and the stamp duty holiday, plus the budget.

“Future sentiment is therefore very much in the hands of the chancellor, who has some difficult decisions to make.

“The continued confidence being demonstrated by buyers suggests that they are not worried as yet and plan to take advantage of continuous low interest rates.

“The potential of high LTV mortgages, as set out by the government, and the probable extension of stamp duty relief, would also keep sentiment strong.”


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