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Economy could recover from coronavirus downturn within six months

Jessica Nangle

April 1, 2020

The global economy is likely to be headed for recovery from a coronavirus-triggered downturn within six months, but only if mass testing is rolled out now and governments guarantee to support demand according to Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group.

His forecast also follows the release of the UN’s latest trade report which read that “the world economy will go into recession this year with a predicted loss of global income in trillions of dollars”.

Mr Green says: “The economic fallout of COVID-19 is as severe as it is unpredictable.

“No-one knows for sure the full of extent of the impact of the public health emergency on the world economy – but a significant downturn is, unfortunately, almost inevitable.

“However, the signs from countries where lockdown restrictions are now being eased suggest that the economic downturn could be relatively short-lived if certain factors come into play sooner rather than later.

“Indeed, I believe that the global economy is likely to be headed for recovery from a coronavirus-triggered downturn within six months – but only if mass testing is rolled out now and governments guarantee to support demand.”

He continues: “Most of the world is currently in phase one: lockdown.

“The unprecedented lockdown measures are, of course, dramatically slowing economies as both supply and demand are hit.

“The next phase, phase two, needs to be mass testing.

“An aggressive mass testing agenda, the likes of which could soon happen in Germany according to reports, would allow potentially millions of people to leave lockdown early, get back to work, and help kick start economies.”

Mr Green goes on to say: “Once mass testing is implemented, we can expect to see supply increase.

“But what about the other essential factor: demand? Without it, economies will continue their downward trajectory.

“The coronavirus pandemic has been – and will continue to be for some time – a hammer blow to consumer confidence.

“This is why it is essential that governments around the world continue and increase their unprecedented support measures for these unprecedented times.”


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