Labour favourite to win next election

Sarah Davidson

September 18, 2012

William Hill rates another “no overall majority” situation with a 13/8 chance with the Tories 9/4 to come back as the sole front runner.

Ray Boulger, senior technical director at John Charcol, shared his opinions on where he would place his bet.

He said: “Although William Hill is hot for Labour, when you compare the leaders of the two main parties – Ed Miliband’s popularity is lagging far behind David Cameron’s.”

Referring to a poll in The Times this morning which put Labour on 45% of the vote if there were an immediate election, Boulger said Miliband seemed to be the weak link in the chain, with 60% voting to keep David Cameron in Downing Street.

Boulger added: “Clearly their current leader is the issue, and although I don’t think the party would look to replace him before the next general election, looking at the front bench, they would struggle for talent if they did.

“I am more inclined to back the Tories – over the next two and half years there is a reasonable chance they will come back.

“But I wouldn’t take the odds from Hill, you can much better ones from Betfair.”

It is 5/1 that the next election will produce a Labour-Lib Dem coalition and 5/1 that there will be a repeat Tory-Lib Dem coalition, while a Lib Dem overall majority is quoted at a dismissive 100/1.

The bookmaker also placed odds on when the next general election will be held at 10/1 for 2012; 3/1 for 2013; 5/1 for 2014 and 8/13 for 2015.

William Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe said: “The timing of the next general election will be all-important, but for sure if it were to take place sooner rather than later we’d expect Labour to go off as red hot favourites.”

Boulger described the Liberal Democrat odds of 100/1 to win an overall majority as the “sucker bet” but thought the outcome of the timing of the general election was the closest to a sure thing.

He said: “My money is on 2015 at 8/13 given that general elections now have to be held every five years unless a vote of no confidence is won, which is very unlikely because that would be suicide for the Liberal Democrats.”

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