Lower end of Prime Central London records strong house price growth

Ryan Bembridge

August 7, 2017

The bottom 10% of the Prime Central London market has achieved strong property price growth of 16% since the market boomed in 2014.

In contrast prices at the top 10% of the market, where property costs in excess of £6.5m, have slowed by 8% since the third quarter of 2014.

The stats come from London Central Portfolio in conjunction with analysts and Land Registry specialists Acadata.

Real house prices are lower than 2007 in 58% of areas

Stamp duty being reformed from a slab to tiered tax in December 2014 – which made it more expensive for property over £937,000 – has clearly impacted the top end of the market.

However the bottom 40% of the market has recorded double digit price growth since Q3 2014, which represents all property under £936,000.

Naomi Heaton, chief executive of London Central Portfolio, said: “Despite reports of subdued prices for PCL as a whole, LCP’s analysis shows a positive picture in all sectors of the market since 2014’s high point, except the top 20%.

“This sector has been notably impacted by changes in stamp duty legislation. Indeed, the bottom 40% of the market has recorded double digit price growth, being far less affected by the recent introduction of taxes.

“As an ‘entry price’ market is also more accessible, remaining particularly attractive to international investors taking advantage of current currency exchange rate benefits which have resulted from Brexit, and continuing low interest rates.”

But Heaton went on to say the long-term outlook for Prime Central London was “compelling” due to its exclusive nature and lack of stock.

She added: “”We anticipate that this sector will continue to see positive price growth as increased uncertainty in the USA and Middle East makes PCL an increasingly sought-after safe haven destination.

Whilst it may take a while for prices to fully correct as they adjust to the additional ‘buy-in’ costs, there is evidence this is already happening.

“Since the trough, prices have seen a recovery and now stand at 8% below the peak.”

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