NIESR: UK at risk of technical recession

John Hewitt Jones

August 9, 2016

The UK is at risk of a technical recession as output declined by 0.4% in July, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has warned.

Following growth of 0.6% in the three months ending in June the month-on-month profile suggests output declined in July by 0.2%.

GDP output increased by 0.3% in the three months ending in July 2016

Not looking for a sharp shock

And according to NIESR there is now a chance that the UK could enter a technical recession between the third quarter of 2016 and the final quarter of 2017.

James Warren, research fellow at NIESR said “We estimate that in the three months to July the UK economy grew by 0.3 per cent, a marked economic slowdown.

“The month on month profile, suggests that the third quarter has got off to a weak start, with output declining in July. Our estimates suggest that there is around an evens chance of a technical recession by the end of 2017.”

So far the latest NIESR quarterly forecast is in line with forecasts which anticipated a contraction of 0.2% in the third quarter of the year.

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