Reallymoving: House prices set to decline by 0.3%

Michael Lloyd

October 16, 2019

House prices in England and Wales are set to dip by 0.3% over the next three months, according to the reallymoving October 2019 House Price Forecast.

Average house prices are on course to rise by 1% in October before falling by 0.3% in November and 1.1% in December.

Rob Houghton, chief executive of reallymoving, said: “The fact that house prices are on course to remain broadly stable over the next three months, alongside positive annual growth, suggests that buyers and sellers have adjusted to a ‘new normal’ and become resigned to doing deals against a backdrop of political instability.

“While our forecast looks beyond the current Brexit deadline of 31 October, the impact of a departure from the EU at the end of this month will not be evident in the data until January and February 2020, when the deals agreed in October and November complete.

“If a deal with the EU is approved by 31 October, or indeed if Article 50 is revoked, we would be likely to see an injection of optimism in the housing market that could prompt prices to rise by up to 5% from the new year as uncertainty melts away.

“Transaction volumes are restrained currently and if those buyers who are currently holding back were motivated to return to the market this would quickly result in more sales being agreed and potentially higher prices.

“If we have a no deal Brexit, we could expect a fairly significant economic hit which would possibly tip us back into recession.

“A lack of consumer confidence is the biggest risk to the housing market and if buyers are nervous about committing, particularly if we see unemployment starting to rise, this would really hold the market back for at least two or three years.”

The forecast also showed that transaction levels are down by 7% for the year to date.

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