Research: Lockdown could result in 6.5 million jobs out of economy

Ryan Fowler

April 20, 2020

The lockdown could take more than 6.5 million jobs out of the economy -around a quarter of the total, according to estimates from the Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Essex. 

The study led by Professor Matteo Richiardi with ISER researcher Diego Collado used ONS data to predict job losses by sector.

Using the most updated Input-Output tables provided by the ONS (2016), it quantified the overall effects on the UK economy of different lockdown scenarios.

The institute’s modelling factors in employees to work from home and shows that some sectors are less affected than others. It also estimates how the reduction in demand for goods and services is having an impact on jobs.

The most badly affected sector is accommodation and food services (-75%), followed by services and retail (almost halved), and transport (-44%).

Agriculture, forestry and fishing loses one job in 10, mainly due to reduced demand by the accommodation and food services sector.

Mining, energy and water Supply, real estate activities (mostly composed of rents), together with public administration and techical activities are barely affected, while the health sector sees a significant increase in overall production and employment (+27%).

Estimated effects of lockdown on employment, by industry (%). 

Estimated effects of lockdown on employment, by industry (absolute numbers). 

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