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Scottish economy set for rapid recovery

Ryan Fowler

March 27, 2014

Turnover expectations for the next six months are at the highest since mid-2007, with 49% businesses expecting an increase and 39% predicting turnover to remain static.

In the three months to February 41% saw increased turnover, 36% experienced static turnover, while 23% experienced a decrease.

The monitor assembles responses from 401 businesses.

Donald MacRae, chief economist, Bank of Scotland said: “The surge in economic activity identified in summer 2013 has been maintained through autumn and winter with the latest quarter showing the second best result in six and a half years.

“Expectations for 2014 are at their highest level since mid-2007 suggesting the recovery will continue throughout 2014 and will become increasingly embedded. An increase in investment by firms would further enhance the recovery.”

For firms in the production sector turnover was up by +16%, for service business it stood at +20%, while repeat business volumes were at +10%.

In terms of new business there was a significant improvement in net balance of +22% compared to +13% from the previous quarter.

In the next six months expectations regarding the volumes of repeat business rose by +27%, while for new business they stood at +34%.

Service firms are more optimistic than production firms regarding turnover, projected an overall net balance for turnover over the next six months of +39% compared to +33% for production firms.

Expectations for future export activity reached a survey record high of +42%, a dramatic leap from the +21% in the previous quarter.


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