Scottish house prices rebuff Brexit uncertainty

John Hewitt Jones

September 14, 2016

scotland flag man silhouette

House prices in Scotland remain resilient despite Brexit uncertainty, according to the Your Move Acadata Scotland monthly house price index published for July.

After a brief reversal in June, average prices recovered in July, with the average house price in Scotland rising to £169,807.

The data suggests a dramatic reduction in transactions linked to the introduction of the 3% surcharge on second homes and buy-to-let properties.

Knight Frank: Expected subdued prices in 2017

The surcharge saw a surge in sales in March, as transactions were brought forward to beat the additional charge. With 11,017 transactions, March was the busiest month since November 2007, at the height of the property boom.

April’s tax change also continues to shed more light on price movements than any other factor, including the Brexit vote. Ignoring a spike in prices from the March surge, Scotland has now seen pretty consistent, steady growth month-by-month since April 2015.

Edinburgh, with the highest average property prices in Scotland, has seen the number of properties sold at £500,000 or more in the first half of 2016 fall by nearly a quarter on last year.

Cheaper areas have taken up the slack. Glasgow, where average prices are well below the £254,000 threshold for the higher LBTT rate, reached a new peak in July, with prices rising 3.4% to £146,965, up 6.2% annually.

Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland, said: “We’ll have to wait another month or two to begin to see the real impact of Brexit, but the Scottish market has already well demonstrated its resilience. The long recovery in average prices continues and is increasingly being led by the more affordable areas, such as Glasgow, where growth looks to be robust.”

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