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Value of prime central flats down 10.2% since 2016

Jake Carter

December 2, 2021

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The average value of a flat in the prime central London market has fallen by 10.2% since 2016, according to Bective analysis of Lonres data.

Flat values have also fallen across the wider prime London market (3.7%) and the prime London fringes (4%).

The average value of a house in the prime central market has fallen by 4.4%.

However, across the wider prime London market, house prices have climbed by 15.3%, while they have remained largely flat across the fringes, down 0.1%.

The W8 postcode was the only central prime area to have seen flat prices hold their value over the past five years – up 0.7% – but house prices have climbed by 11.2%, while in the SW1W postcode, house prices have also increased by 16.9%.

The NW3 postcode has seen the average flat value jump by 9.9%, while in W1W this growth climbs higher still to 29%.

Looking ahead, Bective said the next five years will see a strong reversal in previous market trends.

Based on a combination of current and previous market activity, growing market sentiment and other influential market factors such as development, stock availability and foreign interest, Bective said it expects to see a central prime property revival in the form of a 21% uplift in overall real estate values over the coming five years.

It also predicted a 16% increase across the wider prime market by 2026, with the prime London fringes also seeing property prices climb by 11% in value.

Craig Tonkin, head of sales at Beactive, said: “London performs very independently to the rest of the UK property market and this has been well demonstrated when comparing house price growth performance since the start of the pandemic.

“However, the prime market also acts very independently to the wider London landscape and a combination of political uncertainty due to Brexit and a reduction in foreign buyer interest has proved more problematic across the very top tiers of the market.

“As a result, the prime property market has stuttered somewhat where price appreciation over the last six years is concerned and this is evident pretty much across the board.

“Of course, much like any segment of the market, there are those postcodes that have gone against the grain and remained in favour amongst high end buyers to register very strong uplifts in real estate values.

“We are starting to see evidence that the prime London market is now poised to make a strong return to form in 2022 and since the easing of travel restrictions interest has continued to build.

“Only time will tell as to the impact of the Omicron strain on this market revival but COVID uncertainty aside, the appetite for homeownership across London’s most prestigious postcodes remains strong.

“In the long term, we are also predicting very strong growth across all areas of the prime market.

“The central prime market, in particular, is forecast to perform very well having trailed more peripheral locations in recent years.

“A good prime central market can attract price appreciation in the region of three to 4% per annum, although in 2007 we saw phenomenal growth of 27% in a single year.

“While this level is unlikely in 2022, there is much anticipation that it will be the ‘bounce year’ as prime London swings back in fashion with the world’s wealthiest homebuyers.”


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